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[ID] => 16950
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[post_date] => 2012-11-05 17:11:49
[post_date_gmt] => 2012-11-05 16:11:49
[post_content] => The US presidential election tomorrow is an unusually important one. At a critical moment for its economy, the two candidates do agree on numerous issues: both want to avoid the "fiscal cliff" of automatic spending cuts and tax rises taking effect January 1, and both say they will overhaul the complex, loophole-ridden tax code, reduce deficits and reform immigration. But they also are putting forth radically different visions of the role of the state with their plans to tackle the economy's key problem: the deficit (8% of GDP this year) and national debt (105%). Hence a victory by one candidate or the other could have a major impact on how the US economy evolves in coming years.
The central ideological difference between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is over the size and role of the government in the economy. This election places before Americans two radically different views of government. Obama would increase the government's role and size with broader environmental regulation and a wider role in health care than Americans have ever been willing to accept. Even though Obama also proposes some tax and spending cuts, the ultimate result of his deficit-reduction plan would be a larger government going forward than the Republican plan: total tax revenues to the federal government (which accounts for about half of the US public sector) would rise from 15.7% of GDP to 19.4% in 2015; and federal spending would decline very slightly, from 22.9% to 22.4% of GDP. The higher tax revenues would include higher taxes on the rich.
The other plan, proposed by Mitt Romney, foresees a substantial reduction in the size and role of government in the US economy. The Ryan deficit-reduction plan (named after vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan) would reduce federal spending to 20% of GDP over the same period and boost tax revenues to 18%, leaving the US with a smaller deficit (2% of GDP) by 2015 and a smaller government. Romney's deficit reduction rests mainly on plans for deep spending cuts, which would affect infrastructure spending, radical changes in Medicare entitlements for retirees, and cuts in all other areas under federal responsibility except defense, as well as higher projected growth thanks to the tax cuts.
Romney asserts that his spending and tax cuts -which include tax reductions for the rich-- will stimulate growth and help the economy "grow out" of its debt problems. Obama, in contrast, stresses the asymmetrical impact of the crisis on the rich, whose incomes have risen, and the rest of the country, and proposes to address inequality and conserve and extend public services.
A small government, if it is effective, is a good objective to pursue. However, advocating deep cuts in entitlements is a radical political statement in a country where nearly 16% of the population has no health insurance and at a time when the increased weight of the Baby-Boomers in the retired population will soon be felt. The United States has a more modest public pension system than Europe and is not at the same demographic juncture as its ageing colleagues in the OECD: the US population is still growing and relatively young. However, a cherished goal after the Depression of the 1930s was to end old-age poverty and the inequalities that appear more starkly in the wake of a financial crisis. The Ryan plan would backtrack substantially from both of those objectives. It is also widely recognized that years of low investment have left the United States with outdated and ageing infrastructures. Improving them is one key to stronger growth and to a more sustainable future for the United States.
The US economy is not in a brilliant moment. Even though it looks much better than the eurozone at the present time, private demand is still weak and the private sector continues to deleverage. Productivity growth is excellent and export performance has been good, but the economy still has a large current-account deficit that requires external financing. Most crucially for the average American, 90% of the country´s income gains since the crisis began have gone to the highest 1% on the income scale, and unemployment has stayed stubbornly high at a level Americans find unacceptable: just under 8%. About 40% of the unemployed have been out of work for six months or more, which is a high figure for the United States.
In one sense, however, it may not matter who wins the elections tomorrow. The composition of the new Congress will determine whether the next four years will be years of cooperation and decision-making on the country´s deepest problems, or paralysis. Presently, it looks like the House may be controlled by the Republicans, whose conservative Tea Party element is notoriously confrontational. The Senate could have a small majority by either party. Hence a new president will have to be a skillful negotiator and deal-builder to get his agenda through the two houses. If the new Congress were the same party as the president or were more collaborative than the last Congress, this could mean swift negotiations to avoid the fiscal cliff and set the economy on a sustainable debt-reduction path before February of 2013, when another debt ceiling vote is expected. A divided Congress or one controlled by a different party than the presidency would mean obstructionism and protracted decision-making, which would generate uncertainty and potentially leave the economy´s underlying problems unsolved. This, regardless of who is president, would be the worst-case scenario for the US economy at this juncture in its history.
[post_title] => Will tomorrow´s US election make a difference?
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[post_modified] => 2023-12-13 13:42:59
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The US presidential election tomorrow is an unusually important one. At a critical moment for its economy, the two candidates do agree on numerous issues: both want to avoid the «fiscal cliff» of automatic spending cuts and tax rises taking effect January 1, and both say they will overhaul the complex, loophole-ridden tax code, reduce deficits and reform immigration. But they also are putting forth radically different visions of the role of the state with their plans to tackle the economy’s key problem: the deficit (8% of GDP this year) and national debt (105%). Hence a victory by one candidate or the other could have a major impact on how the US economy evolves in coming years.
Estos aumentos del consumo, la producción industrial y las viviendas iniciadas, confirman el buen tono de la economía americana que podría crecer este año por encima del 2,2% previsto la semana pasada por el FMI. Además, en los próximos meses, la revalorización de las bolsas y la mejora de la confianza ante la recuperación del mercado de la vivienda pueden hacer que el consumo siga aumentando. Y no se debe olvidar que el consumo de EEUU sigue siendo el primer motor de la economía mundial.
Este buen funcionamiento de la mayor economía del mundo, está facilitando la mejora de las expectativas en Europa. Así, esta semana hemos conocido que la confianza de los inversores y analistas alemanes aumentó en octubre por segundo mes consecutivo. Se trata de un sondeo entre 350 expertos en finanzas realizado cada mes por el Instituto de Economía Europea (ZEW). Según esta encuesta la desconfianza económica de Alemania parece que tocó fondo en agosto y tanto en septiembre como en octubre los encuestados son más optimistas sobre el futuro económico de Alemania.
Exportaciones de servicios y bienes
Esta mejora de la economía de Alemania y EEUU va a favorecer un crecimiento todavía mayor de las exportaciones españolas de bienes y servicios. Precisamente dos estadísticas publicadas esta semana, el Índice de Comercio Exterior de Servicios no turísticos del segundo trimestre del año y el comercio exterior de bienes de enero-agosto de 2012 muestran ese elevado crecimiento. Los servicios no turísticos aumentaron en el segundo trimestre un 5,9% con respecto al primer trimestre, crecimiento muy superior al registrado en el primer trimestre que fue del 3,2. Los datos de julio son todavía mejores que los del segundo trimestre, lo que parece indicar que en las exportaciones de servicios existe un potencial impresionante de recorrido al alza.
Por zonas geográficas y en los seis primeros meses del año (con respecto a igual periodo del año anterior) destacan los aumentos en las exportaciones de servicios a Alemania (6,9%), Holanda (6,9%), América del Norte y Central (14,4%) América del Sur (7,2%) y Asia (12,9%). Por sectores, esta mejora se liga al fuerte empuje de los ingresos de los sectores de comunicaciones, informática, servicios ligados a la construcción, seguros y royalties. A lo largo del primer semestre de este año los ingresos por royalties han alcanzado máximos históricos.
Por lo que se refiere a la balanza de bienes, entre enero y agosto, el déficit comercial se ha reducido drásticamente: un 23,3%. Esta mejora refleja: 1) la fuerte debilidad de la demanda interna que ha contraído las importaciones (-0,8%) y 2) la capacidad de penetración de nuestras exportaciones que crecieron en esos ocho meses un 4,1% con respecto al mismo periodo del año pasado. Es en este contexto de economía abierta e internacionalizada en el que hay que ubicar otras dos buenas noticias que el INE suministró este jueves: 1) el Índice General de Cifras de Negocios en la Industria que creció, en tasa anual, el 3,8% en agosto y 2) la entrada de pedidos industriales que registró su primer dato positivo de 2012 creciendo en tasa anual un 1%. Aunque estos buenos datos pueden ser también el resultado del adelanto de compras que se produjo en agosto como consecuencia de la entrada en vigor en septiembre de la subida del IVA.
El ya famoso rescate
La mejora en las exportaciones españolas de bienes y servicios refleja un aumento de la competitividad de nuestra economía y una reducción de nuestro déficit con el exterior, lo que está favoreciendo la distensión en los mercados de deuda. También porque los mercados están descontando la solicitud del Gobierno de España de una línea de crédito preventiva al Mecanismo Europeo de Estabilidad. De ahí que la prima de riesgo se haya situado en los 370 puntos básicos y el bono español a 10 años en el 5,3%. Si queremos que esta situación se mantenga o incluso mejore todavía más, es necesario que el Gobierno cumpla con su compromiso de aplicar medidas fiscales y estructurales que permitan paulatinos avances en la reducción del déficit. Sin olvidar que para que los mercados sigan confiando en nuestra deuda y la prima de riesgo siga bajando es necesaria la solicitud de asistencia.
En resumen, corren buenos vientos (económicos) por la economía americana. Pero para poder tener una opinión más cabal sobre los efectos de la economía en las elecciones presidenciales norteamericanas del 6 de Noviembre habrá que esperar a conocer los datos de las dos próximas semanas. Mientras tanto, aquí en España, seguimos preocupados y desasosegados cuando contemplamos como se desploman el consumo y la inversión. Afortunadamente podemos dirigir nuestra mirada a la demanda externa, que sigue siendo el único motor de crecimiento. El fuerte aumento de las exportaciones de bienes y servicios es por ahora la única vía de salida de esta crisis que dura ya cinco años.
Fuente: Rafael Pampillón. "Buenos datos económicos". Expansión. 20 de octubre de 2012. Página 39.
[post_title] => Buenos datos económicos.
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[post_modified] => 2012-10-22 12:57:20
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Three key issues need to be faced by a new president in the relatively short term: debt reduction, health care and the environment. All three issues are urgent and could have a huge impact on the economy´s prospects.
1) In the area of deficit and debt reduction, the new president will face a debt that is the largest as a % of GDP that the United States has ever faced in peacetime. The debate rages over whether further deficit spending would be a "free lunch" for the economy or whether the debt will prove a severe drag on future growth, but some decision points are looming in the very short term.
If Congress fails to agree on a credible medium-term debt-reduction plan by the end of the year, automatic spending cuts and tax increases will be implemented in January, pushing the economy off what is being dubbed a "fiscal cliff". The Congressional Budget Office and many independent forecasters expect that if the economy goes over this cliff, it will drop back into recession and unemployment will climb back above 9%. So the pressure to do something about the deficit and debt is enormous. Moody´s has already warned that the prized triple-A rating for US bonds is at stake.
2) In the area of health care, the president-elect will find himself with an economy whose health care is the most expensive in the world, costing 15% of GDP between public and private spending, yet where many indicators such as infant mortality and life expectancy are not stellar, and 15.7% of the population is without health insurance.
President Obama´s health reform act, passed in 2010 with the objective of bringing all Americans under the umbrella of health insurance and moving toward greater cost control, has been repudiated by the Republicans, and Mitt Romney has even pledged to repeal it.
Even though the Supreme Court has upheld "Obamacare" as constitutional, radicals in the Republican party are determined to eliminate it due to its projected cost, but their alternative plan would remove security from the elderly who currently enjoy basically free health care. Whoever is elected will have to make decisions on the shape of future US health care, and how it will be funded in the context of deficit reduction.
3) And finally, a new candidate will face increasing pressure from the international community and from the American public --particularly the young-- to do something on the
La tasa de paro repuntó una décima hasta el 8,3% (cuadro 1).
Dada la magnitud de la pérdida de puestos de trabajo en el periodo 2008-2010 (más de 8 millones), al ritmo de creación actual se tardarán casi otros 2 años y 9 meses en recuperar los niveles previos a la crisis.
Perspectivas de futuro
Para los próximos meses no cabe esperar que se pueda mantener o superar el ritmo de creación de empleo de julio. El aumento de incertidumbre acerca de la evolución de la crisis de deuda en Europa, y las cada vez mayores evidencias de desaceleración en EEUU y en el resto del mundo, están afectando la confianza de la clase empresarial estadounidense (tal y como se refleja en diversas encuestas de opinión), lo que retrasará cualquier decisión de ampliación de plantillas. Otro dato más que la Fed podría tener en cuenta a la hora de anunciar en septiembre un nuevo programa de expansión de Base Monetaria.
[post_title] => El mercado de trabajo de Estados Unidos sorprende positivamente
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[post_modified] => 2012-08-10 09:30:05
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Lo mismo ha sucedido en los últimos años con los rendimientos de los bonos alemanes (ver cuadro 2). Algunos de los compradores de los bonos alemanes y norteamericanos son inversores italianos y españoles que huyen del riesgo que supone invertir en sus mercados internos.
Pero si no se rompiese el euro los rendimientos de los bonos españoles e italianos son una auténtica ganga si se comparan con los de EEUU y Alemania.
Cuadro 2
Efectivamente en lo que va de año, la moneda estadounidense se ha apreciado debido a que:
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