Country Risk Analysis

Escrito el 28 mayo 2010 por Miguel Aguirre Uzquiano en Economía Global

Coface, the French export credit agency (ECAs, they are entities that work on behalf of the OECD states to promote international trade) is giving during the last weeks several Country Risk Conferences in order to explain their economic point of view

The most important outcomes are:

The credit crisis, the most violent in the last 60 years  seems to be ending after two years leaving the world growth differential between the beginning and end of the crisis around 6.1 points

The world growth rate for 2010 is expected to be 3%, driven by strong economies in emerging countries.

Japan’s expected growth rate of 2.7% will be higher than Europe’s. US growth will be 3% to 3.5%.

Latin America, thanks to financial reforms instituted because of an earlier regional financial crisis, is well positioned to weather the global financial crisis.

China is now experiencing its own real estate bubble. However, the country is ripe for more imports.

Asia’s strong intra-regional trade is providing a buffer from external shocks.

Greece will need to work very hard to pay off debt. The country does not have the necessary growth to meet its obligations.

There is a remaining danger in bubbles of public debt, the overcapacity of China and the asset price bubble (stock markets)

Summarizing we are coming out of the crisis but in Europe, mainly in southern countries we are facing a high probability of bursting of the bubbles indicated before that may generate new negative shocks for companies.


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