An Oil prices rebound in 2009?

Escrito el 2 mayo 2009 por Miguel Aguirre Uzquiano en Economía Global

One of the main issues in the commercial trade is the oil export import trade.  On July 2008 the crude hit a record high of USD 147 and after many bounces back and forth we are now with a price around USD 50 for the first time since November .  Many analyst believe that we are in a road to higher prices all along 2009.  But the current economic downturn is global and severe so the worldwide demand is expected to decrease a 1,6% this year according to the Energy Information Administration.  Also due to the actual economic collapse many research expensive projects -unconventional oil or deepwater exploration- are being pulled back,  while the  OPEC, trying to keep oil above USD 50 per barrel with a goal of cutting 4.2 million barrels a day from its member’s daily production (from a global amount of  almost 25 million). 

So in the following years there could be two ways of heading this issue: One will  put the emphasis in environmental costs and the need to develop clean energy alternative sources (is not Warren Buffet promoting a Chinese electric car?) .  The other one would try to maintain the favour in the oil sector, with some reasons as the economic return: The Amex oil index trades at six times its earnings  or the consequences of   the US government spending  that could drive down the value of dollar, hence a weaker USD will put pressure on the price of oil. 

If its not clear if in the following years there would be more prudence on the consumption -it looks clear that the last years run up is over-, we would have more environmental pressure or the increase of demand in countries as Mexico, Brazil or Russia -with their own moguls as PEMEX , PETROBRAS or YUKOS  would head us back to a USD 147 oil barrel 



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