The future of China

Escrito el 19 junio 2011 por Miguel Aguirre Uzquiano en Economía Global

Some impressive figures about the Asian giant:

In 2009 China overcome the US as the bigger car producer: 10.600.000 units versus 10.400.000.

The biggest bank of the world is the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

160 airports have constructed in the last decade

40% of its GDP comes out of international commerce

The Credit fault spread of the country is better than G10 countries as Italy

The Market capitalization of China Mobile was in 2009 bigger than ATT´s.

They have corporate investors growing worldwide: Huawei, China Mobile, Lenovo, ICBC, Chinalco, Sinopec, CNPC or BYD.

Although all this big important issues COFACE has just published its eight edition of the payment behavior of the Chinese companies.  The outcomes are that Chinese companies are expecting the payment situation inside of the country to worsen in the short term:

China growth remains dynamic , 8,8 , expected in 2011 , but slowing form the 10,3 of last year of the 9,1 of 2009.

There is a desire in the authorities to move up market salary increases, as it happened to Foxconn and Honda and a little appreciation of the Yuan.

There is an increase of the overdue payments mainly caused by clients financial situation, regarding competition, the lack of access to external resources and the increasingly cost of raw materials.

«2010 has been a very favourable year for Chinese companies due to growth and economic policy support. But in 2011, companies are undergoing series of negative impacts: the withdrawal of the budgetary stimulus, scarcer and more expensive credit, acceleration in the Yan’s appreciation, inflation and the increase in supply costs and above all the intense pressure to increase salaries. If in the medium-term, these impacts are welcome as they are favourable to Chinese growth in favour of consumption, in the short-term the most fragile companies could be in difficulty”, observes Constance Boublil, Coface economist, specialist in the Asia region.  

Lies ahead a great path of increase having in mind that last year China, just produced a quarter of the US total GDP; although in the WTO China has not signed some agreements regarding the construction of Public Works what can inflict a lot of uncertainties in public tenders; it is for sure a complex society where a civil code is nonexistent and being Brazil biggest commercial partner there is big link between the development of both economies. 

May Chinese population enjoy an increase of income of future years or remaining as the world factory would cause many internal tensions?  May the economy has a strong outcome ahead or in the future years will be under the same pressure burden by European economies?


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