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Previsiones para 2010 (I)

Escrito el 23 diciembre 2009 por José Ramón Diez Guijarro en Uncategorized

Esta época del año es buen momento para repasar todo lo ocurrido en los últimos doce meses, hacer propósito de enmienda y, en el caso de los economistas, realizar previsiones para el ejercicio que comenzará la semana que viene. Tarea no exenta de complicaciones y, por tanto, con una elevada probabilidad de error, sobre todo, cuando la coyuntura actual todavía se sigue caracterizando por un elevado grado de incertidumbre. Para minimizar esos riesgos, voy a empezar esta semana resumiendo las opiniones del consenso de analistas, recopiladas por “Consensus Forecasts”. Dejaré mis previsiones para el martes que viene.

La primera idea que se extrae de las previsiones de los analistas es que existe un elevado grado de confianza en la consolidación de la recuperación económica. La economía mundial crecerá a ritmos del 2,9% en 2010 (-2,2% en 2009), con una fuerte aportación al crecimiento de Asia-Pacífico (5,2%), un buen comportamiento de América Latina (3,6%) y EEUU (+2,7%) y, cierta decepción en las previsiones para la UEM (+1,3%). Estas estimaciones pueden justificar que se anticipe una apreciación del dólar con respecto al euro hasta el 1,40 a finales de 2011, estimación que ahora probablemente sería algo más agresiva, teniendo en cuenta la evolución desde que se cerró la encuesta en la primera semana de diciembre (ahora el tipo de cambio dólar/euro está rondando el 1,425).

Inflación y política monetaria

Aunque la inflación media mundial experimentará una subida del 1,4% al 2,4%, continuará en una zona muy cómoda para los bancos centrales, que les evitará tener que poner en marcha de una manera apresurada, las estrategias de salida. Tanto la inflación media en EEUU (2,1%), como en la UEM (1,2%) pueden permitir que los bancos centrales retrasen el momento de la subida de tipos hasta al menos finales de 2010. En este caso, las previsiones recopiladas por Bloomberg situarían el momento de la primera subida en EEUU en el tercer trimestre de 2010 (cuarto trimestre en el caso del BCE). Por último,  se piensa que Japón seguirá en deflación, ya que los precios caerán un 1% en 2010 (-1,3% en 2009).

¿Recuperación fuerte o débil?

Pese a este moderado optimismo sobre la situación económica, siguen existiendo dudas sobre la solidez de la próxima recuperación e incluso no se descarta la posibilidad de una recaída en la actividad. Como escribió la profesora Gayle Allard hace unos días, un 20% de los encuestados piensan que en algún trimestre la economía americana experimentará una recaída (la apuesta se centra en el primer trimestre). Estas dudas también se ponen de manifiesto por la enorme distancia existente entre la previsión más optimista y pesimista para EEUU (3,9%/1,5%), algo que se repite en la zona euro (2,5%/0,2%). Igualmente significativas son las previsiones a medio plazo (2010-2014), que se pueden utilizar como una “proxy” del crecimiento potencial. En el caso de EEUU se situarían algo por debajo del 3%, mientras en la UEM no superarían el 2%.

En la mayoría de países se espera un aumento de la tasa de desempleo el año que viene. Esto pone de manifiesto una de las características más preocupantes de esta recuperación, como es la escasa intensidad de la creación de empleo.

España

Finalmente, reseñar que la previsión media de crecimiento para la economía española en 2010 es del -0,4% (-0,3% la previsión oficial en Presupuestos), con una estimación máxima del +0,6% y una mínima del -1,2%. La inflación media se mantendría contenida (+1,3%) y el déficit de la balanza por cuenta corriente volvería a reducirse hasta algo menos del 5% del PIB.

Comentarios

JOSE LUIS REVILLA ESCUDERO 25 diciembre 2009 - 14:06

WALL STREET, 20 years later

Year 1987
Reagan was the US president at that moment. OCTOBER´s BLACK MONDAY makes WALL St fall 508 points in one single session.

20% drop in one day. What happened ?? … Alan GREENSPAN is the FED responsible, and therefore, the key person in the country due to give some kind of explanations to the world.

Greenspan doesn´t know what to say. The main aim of his speech must be CALM, restore CONFIDENCE, and obviously PLANS, IDEAS, …

The reason of this situation was not other than the decision of increase interest rates, without taking much notice of the effects from this decision in the, at that time, bubbled finacial markets. But there is never one single cause,… the main bonds collector in the country gets into bankruptcy, mainly due to this increase in interest rates that made current bonds lose value.

So, GREENSPAN was guilty ??
Obviously, he ´d just arrived into his FED position. But also obvious is that he was supposed to bring some kind of “outdoor” experience in markets, stock exchange, brokers and bankers.
So, yes, GREENSPAN did a bad calculation of risks when deciding to raise rates and ignored factors that derived into a complete hell.

The RESTRICTED handbook for complex situations had to be released from the shelves of the FED library. And acting as a cook recipe book, only 3 dramatic options were recommended:

1- To close the markets. To interrupt the daily shares transactions.
2- To deliver all the FED credit lines and cash into the banks and brokers to restore credit flows and restore confidence.

3- To artificially enter into the markets buying shares to sustain the indexes.

All these 3 measures were considered as an interferation of the state into the free markets. All an interest declaration in the middle of the capitalism paradigm country, the United States of America.

Some time later, nobody explained yet how… but suddenly, the next day, and in only half an hour, major banks began buying futures to restore shares quotations. Many experts said it was some kind of a together action between the government and the private banks. Others say that banks decided to do so because they had the TOP SECRET support of the government, just in case, all went wrong again.

Year 2008
President W.BUSH is in charge. Lehman brothers fall down. The financial system breaks up completely.

Ben BERNANKE had substituted GREENSPAN not that long ago. A long period of 0% interest rates is inherited by BEN, and obviously a new bubbled Wall St is also present. But a new bubble is also there, the REAL ESTATE market.

The securitisation of SUBPRIME bonds attached to this REAL ESTATE bubble makes everything explode.

The difference with year 87 crisis is maybe, that BERNANKE did not decide to raise the rates before everything collapsed. But only for that, since all other is very similar:

1- Instead of a bonds company collapse, we have LEHMAN BROTHERS fall because of the subprime loans.
2- In both cases we have a new FED responsible in charge.
3- The system collapsed and the “between banks” loans stopped in a sudden way, collapsing the credit flow.

4- Markets also dropped heavily, creating a complete negative sentiment.

But in this case, it was not the next day, and with all major banks buying futures, the ones that healed the situation.
It has been a FED strategy, right from the heart of Wall Street, buying shares, nationalising banks, and supporting artificially the Stock Exchanges during the last 10 months. This strategy has not spent half an hour, it has spent more than 12 months and it still continues…

1- 0% interest rates policy.
2- Banks nationalised through the entrance of the government in their shareholding composition.
3- Interbank credit flows restored through vast amounts of public money.
4- Shares quotations support directly from the FED treasury departments and operators.

And we still continue, some say that maybe till june 2010, others fear about the consequences of the end of this aid.

Some say that our current crisis is similar to that in year 1929, the great depression, but its similarities with the chaos of year 1987 are also remarkable, mainly in terms of the banking collapse.

This crisis has left the Wall Street operators screens and has jumped into the real world, that after such a long period of wealth financed by GREENSPAN low interest rates policies, crashed into a REAL ESTATE and CONSUMER bubble that made credit institutions collapse.

And all this came without previous forecast ???… Where is regulation, where is the banking system control ???

So, did GREENSPAN get wrong again ??? …

Meanwhile, investors all around the globe look voiceless how bad macro data ( huge unemployment, public deficit, real estate dramatic statistics … ) mix with a rally in Wall Street.

Every single day a bad figure is released, markets respond with gains. Creating once again a Stock bubble with only 3 – 4 key companies rising the indexes, while the remaining companies struggle to survive.

Markets cannot fall. Markets must be the indicator of positiveness, confidence, that ” we are in the right road to recovery”, but macro data do not say that yet.

Is the FED once again manipulating the markets ??? … Till when ??? … And when this manipulation finishes, what is going to happen ??? ….

We have to wait till june 2010 to see the effects, or maybe more ???

What kind of investors took profit of this unusual rally ?? … Obviously, not the experienced ones, obviously not the old ones, … But those that one day got up, and while having breakfast before taking the car to get into his public office or “anti crisis business” saw that CITIGROUP shares were at 0,5 dollars per share, and told his wife, … Honey !!!, tell the bank branch clerk today to put our savings into CITIGROUP shares that are extremely cheap !!!!

Jose Luis Revilla Escudero
Chairman & CEO
WWShares, Inc
– Global Wealth Management-
http://www.worldwideshares.blogspot.com

[…] from: Previsiones para 2010 (I) | Economy Weblog Share and […]

John Anthony 14 enero 2010 - 20:56

John Anthony…

Your topic Previsiones para 2010 (I) | Economy Weblog was interesting when I found it on Thursday searching for bad credit loans in Google…

stefani 24 marzo 2010 - 15:12

hola una pregunta me pueden ayudar con una duda el indice de apertura de una economia me permite saber la dependencia de la misma con el exterior. la duda es hay algun idice para calcular la dependencia con el exterior

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