Who wants to be US president?

Escrito el 13 enero 2008 por Gayle Allard en Uncategorized

The surprising show of Barak Obama in the Iowa primaries, followed by Hillary Clinton’s victory in New Hampshire, shows how exciting the US presidential race promises to be. But even as the country goes through the long process of choosing its two candidates and preparing for national elections, the question for economic observers is what kind of economy the new president will preside over – and whether he/she will want to preside over it!

The signs of a sharper slowdown are becoming more abundant. Over the Christmas season the bad news has included a jump in the unemployment rate –to 5%, an excellent figure on the international scene but more than half a percentage point higher than the previous figure–, a sharp drop in durable goods orders, the persistent credit crunch and the housing slump which in some regions could turn into a full-blown crisis. Add to the mix petroleum prices of $100 per barrel, and the combination could be a recipe for a slowdown, at the very least, and recession combined with inflation (stagflation), at the worst.

Given these prospects, who would really want to win the U.S. elections? The new president will face not only ending the Iraq war and sorting out the health-care issue, but also presiding over what could be the worst economy since the early 1990s. It´s not an attractive prospect… and it would take an excellent manager or extraordinary good luck to address the challenges well enough to win a second term.


Jose Luis Borrallo 14 enero 2008 - 11:17

My biggest concern would be for how long is the USD/€ rate going to remains at current levels? Is this competitiveness of the US economy due to the exchange rate or to the strenght of the manufacturing in US?
Can you mantain such a high expenses in war while the industry indexes weakens and the unemployment rates increases?
I do believe that the american economy is strong enough to overcome these problems but what I cannot see is the politicians telling the audience that bad times are coming and restrictive policies as well…Fighting problems blaming others is always the easiest task.

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