La prestigiosa revista The Economist, que ha salido hoy, publica dos artículos sobre España (Viva Zapatero y Zappy happy on the beach). Se trata de una visión paradójica de España. Dice, por ejemplo, que el PSOE no es un partido que apueste por el mercado (es decir es un partido intervencionista), que la prosperidad española es precaria, que la industria española está perdiendo rápidamente competitividad, que el déficit por cuenta corriente crece, que la economía depende demasiado del boom de la vivienda y la construcción y que la inflación sube, sin embargo, y a pesar de esta lamentable situación Zapatero está siendo un buen presidente. Entre los logros de su gestión, The Economist destaca que el Gobierno de Rodríguez Zapatero ha mantenido las cuentas públicas «en orden». Pero que a largo plazo el crecimiento económico no es saludable. En esto coincide con la última encuesta publicada por el CIS, donde se señala que el 33% de los españoles dicen que la situación económica ha empeorado en el último año (sólo el 9,8% dice que ha mejorado).

Copio un par de párrafos de estos dos artículos por si os ayuda a entende que le está pasando a la economía española: “Inflation (in Spain) is close to 4%, almost 1.5 points above the average for the euro area. Spain boasts one of the world’s biggest current-account deficits, heading for over 9% of GDP. Cheap credit, a construction boom and domestic consumption, not investment, have been the main motors of growth. House prices, says a recent Goldman Sachs report, may be overvalued by as much as 25-35%. With euro interest rates rising, the housing bubble could well burst, pulling the rug out from under a construction sector that accounts for 16% of GDP and 12% of employment. “We are not on a good path,” says Rafael Pampillón, of Madrid’s Instituto de Empresa business school. “It has to come to an end, because we cannot keep building homes at this rate.” When the building stops, he says, the cycle by which construction fuels consumption, and vice versa, could be inverted: “the virtuous cycle becomes a vicious one.”
“All the same, Mr Zapatero has little room for manoeuvre. He cannot devalue a currency, the euro, that is shared with 11 other countries. He cannot look to a sharp rise in interest rates to curb inflation, because rates are set by the European Central Bank, which must take into account the larger, more sluggish, economies of Germany and France. A tighter rein on public spending is another possible response, but the budget is already in surplus. “We are very aware of the importance of budget policy,” says David Vegara Figueras, deputy finance minister. “It is important that we do not throw on more gasoline. ”Does Spain have much time? Mr Pampillón predicts that the housing bubble, if it bursts, will do so in 2008. “We expect the slowdown to be quite mild,” says Javier Pérez de Azpillaga, at Goldman Sachs, who says that GDP growth will remain over 2.5% in 2007. “That is not a disaster. In fact it is very good compared with the rest of euroland.” Spaniards may be fretting about high house prices but, apart from that, they show little concern about their consumption- and credit-driven economy”.