Esta semana (17 al 23 de marzo) The Economist publica un interesante artículo “The quest for prosperity” donde comenta algo que ya indicábamos en este blog en el post El 1 DE ENERO ESLOVENIA ENTRARÁ EN EL EURO ¿Qué decíamos entonces? Qué probablemente fue un error admitir a Portugal en la UEM. También se decía que “algunos políticos italianos han considerado asimismo la posibilidad de que Italia se salga del euro y poder así devaluar su moneda ya que se trata de una economía con elevados niveles salariales y alta rigidez en los precios que le lleva a generar inflación incluso durante las recesiones. La pertenencia al euro de países muy inflacionistas como Portugal, Italia, España o Grecia supone una pérdida persistente e irrecuperable de su competitividad”.

¿Qué dice The Economist en su número de ayer? Copio unos párrafos: “Spain Italy, Portugal and Greece are now locked into the single currency. The Mediterranean quartet (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) has suffered a huge loss of competitiveness in a relatively short time. This loss is reflected in colossal current-account deficits (8.8% para España, which has been growing fast) or pitifully slow growth (only 1.3% a year for Italy since the euro began). Without the euro, Italy at least would surely have had to devalue by now. In a sense, the single currency has protected its members, but at the price of storing up big problems in future. Some analysts still speculate that Italy might one day be forced out of the euro”.

Sigue The Economist. “That would be politically unthinkable, and most politicians in Rome duly refuse to think about it. Leaving the euro would also be costly, as Argentina found when it was forced off its currency peg to the dollar in 2001. So what else can Italy do? One possibility is to follow the German example and endure years of wage restraint. But that requires a lot of discipline. Moreover, the two-tier labour markets that have become common in Europe, with insiders on permanent contracts insulated from the fears of unemployment afflicting temporary workers, offer little incentive for workers to accept real pay cuts. The harsh conclusion is that, for euro members, there is no alternative to substantial reform, liberalising product and labour markets alike, to make their economies more flexible and better able to cope with shocks. Ironically, the two EU members with arguably the most flexible economies are Britain and Denmark, both of which have chosen not to join the euro. Alas, the political leaders in Mediterranean countries show little appetite for taking on the special-interest groups that always resist painful reforms.

Meanwhile the new EU members that were once pressing for early entry need to think again. Slovenia scraped in at the start of this year; Malta and Cyprus may follow soon. But the Baltic states do not seem ready; and Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, the three biggest new members, are unlikely to join before 2012 at the earliest. They would be wise to employ the waiting time not only to grow fast but also to make their economies more flexible”. Parece que Polonia no quiere entrar en el euro, algo decíamos en este blog el 8 de noviembre ¿Debería Polonia entrar en el euro? ¿Se entiende ahora un poco mejor el porqué? ¿Se saldrá Italia del euro como se pregunta The Economist?