13
Dic

Se confirma la recuperación económica de China

Escrito el 13 Diciembre 2009 por Rafael Pampillón en Economía Mundial

Tal como señalamos en este blog  , hace un par de meses, los datos macroeconómicos de China mejoran lo que refleja una recuperación que parece imparable y que probablemente se intensificará el año que viene.

Los buenos datos de noviembre

Las importaciones aumentaron, en noviembre, lo que demuestra que la demanda interna está mejorando quizá por el plan de estímulo del Gobierno. Las importaciones subieron en noviembre un 26,7% interanual por encima del 21,9% que esperaban los economistas. Los volúmenes de importaciones han registrado crecimiento en todos los meses desde junio, por las masivas compras de materias primas, como petróleo y mineral de hierro.

Las exportaciones siguieron disminuyendo, pero en noviembre, lo hicieron a un menor ritmo. La mayor parte de los analistas señalan que las exportaciones aumentarán el próximo año lo que, sin duda, ayudará a sostener la recuperación económica.

Como consecuencia,  el superávit comercial de China en noviembre fue de 19.090 millones de dólares, por debajo de los 23.990 millones de octubre, según datos de la administración general de aduanas. Sigue siendo el superávit comercial más grande del mundo.

La producción industrial creció en noviembre a su mayor ritmo en más de dos años: un 19,2% interanual  y por encima del 18,3% previsto. Se trata del mayor incremento desde junio de 2007.

 El peligro de la inflación

Los precios de los alimentos provocaron un incremento de los precios de consumo en noviembre, el primero en 10 meses. Para evitar la inflación los el Banco Central de China ya ha comenzado a retirar algunos de sus estímulos. La fortaleza de la recuperación probablemente animará el debate sobre hasta dónde debería llegar el Gobierno en su retirada de los estímulos, sobre todo en lo referente a la inyección de créditos en la economía.

Por último, las ventas minoristas en el gigante asiático aumentaron un 15,8% interanual en noviembre, en comparación con el 16,2% de octubre.

Como consecuencia de esta expansión económica se ha encendido el debate sobre el momento en que el gobierno debería desmantelar sus políticas expansivas fiscales y monetarias, sobretodo ante el aumento de los riesgos de inflación. Todo cambio de política será gradual porque Pekín se ha comprometido a apoyar la recuperación y no es probable que corra el riesgo de interrumpirla con una retirada abrupta de los estímulos económicos.

Fuente: Terence Poon nd Jason Dean: “Chinese Rebound Prompts New Dilemma“. WSJ, 11 de diciembre de 2009.

Comentarios

APAC 22 Diciembre 2009 - 06:02

Lo que hay es una burbuja inmobiliaria terrible. En barrios de Shanghai los precios de las nuevas urbanizaciones se han incrementado entre un 50% y un 100% desde el mes de febrero, y es que a raiz del paquete de estímulo los que mandan se han dedicado a colocar esos capitales en la bolsa y en Real Estate.
Se está pagando el metro cuadrado a 10.000 euros. Miedo me da.

El mercado laboral para el personal cualificado sigue estando muy parado, nadie se mueve de su puesto de trabajo. Eso sí, inmigrantes de provincias se dedican sin descanso a levantar infrastructuras colosales por un lado y a levantar las aceras sin sentido por otro lado. Ya veremos que pasa cuando termine la Expo 2010. Algo se inventarán, pero lo de la burbuja…..

JOSE LUIS REVILLA ESCUDERO 25 Diciembre 2009 - 14:07

WALL STREET, 20 years later

Year 1987
Reagan was the US president at that moment. OCTOBER´s BLACK MONDAY makes WALL St fall 508 points in one single session.

20% drop in one day. What happened ?? … Alan GREENSPAN is the FED responsible, and therefore, the key person in the country due to give some kind of explanations to the world.

Greenspan doesn´t know what to say. The main aim of his speech must be CALM, restore CONFIDENCE, and obviously PLANS, IDEAS, …

The reason of this situation was not other than the decision of increase interest rates, without taking much notice of the effects from this decision in the, at that time, bubbled finacial markets. But there is never one single cause,… the main bonds collector in the country gets into bankruptcy, mainly due to this increase in interest rates that made current bonds lose value.

So, GREENSPAN was guilty ??
Obviously, he ´d just arrived into his FED position. But also obvious is that he was supposed to bring some kind of “outdoor” experience in markets, stock exchange, brokers and bankers.
So, yes, GREENSPAN did a bad calculation of risks when deciding to raise rates and ignored factors that derived into a complete hell.

The RESTRICTED handbook for complex situations had to be released from the shelves of the FED library. And acting as a cook recipe book, only 3 dramatic options were recommended:

1- To close the markets. To interrupt the daily shares transactions.
2- To deliver all the FED credit lines and cash into the banks and brokers to restore credit flows and restore confidence.

3- To artificially enter into the markets buying shares to sustain the indexes.

All these 3 measures were considered as an interferation of the state into the free markets. All an interest declaration in the middle of the capitalism paradigm country, the United States of America.

Some time later, nobody explained yet how… but suddenly, the next day, and in only half an hour, major banks began buying futures to restore shares quotations. Many experts said it was some kind of a together action between the government and the private banks. Others say that banks decided to do so because they had the TOP SECRET support of the government, just in case, all went wrong again.

Year 2008
President W.BUSH is in charge. Lehman brothers fall down. The financial system breaks up completely.

Ben BERNANKE had substituted GREENSPAN not that long ago. A long period of 0% interest rates is inherited by BEN, and obviously a new bubbled Wall St is also present. But a new bubble is also there, the REAL ESTATE market.

The securitisation of SUBPRIME bonds attached to this REAL ESTATE bubble makes everything explode.

The difference with year 87 crisis is maybe, that BERNANKE did not decide to raise the rates before everything collapsed. But only for that, since all other is very similar:

1- Instead of a bonds company collapse, we have LEHMAN BROTHERS fall because of the subprime loans.
2- In both cases we have a new FED responsible in charge.
3- The system collapsed and the “between banks” loans stopped in a sudden way, collapsing the credit flow.

4- Markets also dropped heavily, creating a complete negative sentiment.

But in this case, it was not the next day, and with all major banks buying futures, the ones that healed the situation.
It has been a FED strategy, right from the heart of Wall Street, buying shares, nationalising banks, and supporting artificially the Stock Exchanges during the last 10 months. This strategy has not spent half an hour, it has spent more than 12 months and it still continues…

1- 0% interest rates policy.
2- Banks nationalised through the entrance of the government in their shareholding composition.
3- Interbank credit flows restored through vast amounts of public money.
4- Shares quotations support directly from the FED treasury departments and operators.

And we still continue, some say that maybe till june 2010, others fear about the consequences of the end of this aid.

Some say that our current crisis is similar to that in year 1929, the great depression, but its similarities with the chaos of year 1987 are also remarkable, mainly in terms of the banking collapse.

This crisis has left the Wall Street operators screens and has jumped into the real world, that after such a long period of wealth financed by GREENSPAN low interest rates policies, crashed into a REAL ESTATE and CONSUMER bubble that made credit institutions collapse.

And all this came without previous forecast ???… Where is regulation, where is the banking system control ???

So, did GREENSPAN get wrong again ??? …

Meanwhile, investors all around the globe look voiceless how bad macro data ( huge unemployment, public deficit, real estate dramatic statistics … ) mix with a rally in Wall Street.

Every single day a bad figure is released, markets respond with gains. Creating once again a Stock bubble with only 3 – 4 key companies rising the indexes, while the remaining companies struggle to survive.

Markets cannot fall. Markets must be the indicator of positiveness, confidence, that ” we are in the right road to recovery”, but macro data do not say that yet.

Is the FED once again manipulating the markets ??? … Till when ??? … And when this manipulation finishes, what is going to happen ??? ….

We have to wait till june 2010 to see the effects, or maybe more ???

What kind of investors took profit of this unusual rally ?? … Obviously, not the experienced ones, obviously not the old ones, … But those that one day got up, and while having breakfast before taking the car to get into his public office or “anti crisis business” saw that CITIGROUP shares were at 0,5 dollars per share, and told his wife, … Honey !!!, tell the bank branch clerk today to put our savings into CITIGROUP shares that are extremely cheap !!!!

Jose Luis Revilla Escudero
Chairman & CEO
WWShares, Inc
– Global Wealth Management-
http://www.worldwideshares.blogspot.com

Dejar un Comentario

*

Utilizamos cookies propias y de terceros para mejorar nuestros servicios y mostrarle contenido relacionado con sus preferencias mediante el análisis de sus hábitos de navegación. Si continua navegando, consideramos que acepta su uso. Puede cambiar la configuración u obtener más información aquí. Aceptar