24
Nov

EEUU sale de la recesión

Escrito el 24 noviembre 2009 por Rafael Pampillón en Economía de EEUU

 
Hoy se ha confirmado que la economía más grande del mundo, Estados Unidos (EEUU), ha salido de la recesión. La producción económica de  EEUU creció en el tercer trimestre del año un 2,8%. El mayor crecimiento en casi 2 años.  Este crecimiento del PIB es el primero que se produce desde el segundo trimestre del 2008. Es interesante señalar que a diferencia de muchos países, EEUU publica los resultados de su PIB anualizado (crecimiento con respecto al trimestre anterior multiplicado por 4) y no la variación con respecto al mismo trimestre del año anterior. El PIB mide todos los bienes y servicios producidos en la economía durante un período de tiempo.       El gasto de los consumidores, que representa alrededor del 70% de la actividad económica de EEUU, aumentó, en el tercer trimestre, un 2,9%, especialmente ha crecido el consumo de bienes duraderos (sobre todo coches), que son los de mayor precio,  lo que  aleja la preocupación por la parálisis de los consumidores a comprar productos más caros. Este aumento del consumo permite a los fabricantes incrementar la producción, un paso fundamental en una recuperación.

Inversión

Cuando en un país la confianza de las empresas y de los consumidores comienza a recuperarse, la economía avanza hacia un punto en el que las empresas se sentirán más cómodas para asumir riesgos y seguir invirtiendo. De hecho en el tercer trimestre la inversión en bienes de equipo aumentó por primera vez desde 2007. Otro componente de la inversión, la vivienda, registró su primer aumento desde el primer trimestre del 2005. La inversión en vivienda en el tercer trimestre, tuvo el mayor aumento desde 1986.

Gasto público 

La economía estadounidense se expandió en el tercer trimestre también por las ayudas públicas que han venido recibiendo familias y empresas desde hace 2 años. En el tercer trimestre,  los gastos del Gobierno federal han seguido la senda del crecimiento: un 8%.

Las exportaciones crecieron un 15%, mientras que las importaciones aumentaron bastante más. En el futuro sería de esperar que la depreciación del dólar revirtiera esta tendencia de forma que en el 4º trimestre el comercio internacional (las exportaciones netas) aportasen crecimiento positivo a la economía.

Un poco de historia: un año de recesión económica

La pronunciada contracción de EEUU (crecimientos negativos durante el segundo semestre de 2008 y primer semestre de 2009) se originó por un severo retroceso de la producción de las empresas que intentaban alinear su producción con una caída del consumo provocada por unos ciudadanos fuertemente angustiado por la recesión más prolongada desde la Gran Depresión y la contracción más profunda desde 1958. La crisis llegó a su apogeo en el cuarto trimestre de 2008 tras una caída de 6,3% en el PIB, una contracción encabezada por los consumidores debido a que el crédito se congeló en los meses posteriores al shock financiero de septiembre. 

Conclusión

La buena noticia, como decía al principio es que la recesión ya pasó. Este rápido aumento del PIB (2,9%) alimenta la esperanza de que la economía, después de una severa purga, crecerá tanto en el cuarto trimestre de este año como a lo largo de 2010.La mala noticia es que el desempleo seguirá aumentando. Desgraciadamente, la debilidad del mercado laboral ralentizará el proceso de recuperación de la economía americana.

Comentarios

JOSE LUIS REVILLA ESCUDERO 27 noviembre 2009 - 11:48

jueves 26 de noviembre de 2009
INDIA

“INDIA´s TOUGHEST DECISION” was the main title I chose once,to publish a previous post talking about the important role that INDIA must play in the short and medium term world order.

My thinking wasn´t other than INDIA must now accomplish the most important internal reforms ever. Not only economic, but social and cultural.

With one of the most dynamic economies in the middle part of the globe, within a geographic situation, critical for US interests, INDIA becomes, at the same time, the rich neighbor of ASIA.

Young INDIAN generations speak english maybe because of the hard times lived under the british empire. They enjoy one of the most dynamic financial centres in the world, MUMBAI. And , along the last years, it has become the main OUTSOURCER of the technological world…

But what makes this country really important is once again the POPULATION increase: With more than 1 billion people INDIA positions itself as the second most populated country in the world, right after CHINA.

The US has nothing to win with CHINA, since they are just like 2 tennis players that know each other really good and do not let the other play the winning game.

Therefore, INDIA has also been invited to the party. Last days visit to “OBAMAs free receptions” ( 2 people crashed into without further invitation and took pictures with smiling Biden and Ehmanuel, just cheating all internal security controls ), makes me think that I was completely right with my particular forecast.

US hegemony in the current world order will be only possible by joining forces with the big INDIA. The goal: To brake the unstoppable advance of CHINA, or at least, try to compete equally !!!

PAKISTAN may be the official issue, but it is not the real issue.

My old post finished by saying that it may be really interesting to watch how INDIA decides among its 3 main options:

a) To continue performing independently, developing its internal work force and continuing with its huge expansion plans attending either CHINA and the US without especific partnerships.

b) To become an US ally, economically and politically. The same way as Japan did some time ago.

c) Attend the huge market in the world: CHINA.
Get their focus on the development of the asian area, without paying much attention to Europe or the US internal alliances.

We will see what happens, but INDIA has, for sure, the key of the hegemony in the next world order.

Jose Luis Revilla Escudero
Chairman & CEO
WWShares, Inc
-Global Wealth Management-
http://www.worldwideshares.blogspot.com

JOSE LUIS REVILLA ESCUDERO 27 noviembre 2009 - 11:49

The FED SHOP BOYS

They are not the PET SHOP BOYS, the famous band of the 80s… They are the FED SHOP BOYS… the new generation of politicians and economists !!

a) Public Deficit … it does not matter at all when we are in the middle of a huge crisis !!
b) Taxes increase … Yeah, but explained as an ecological tax increase, … or as a temporary help to those needed…

c) Inflation… What is inflation when we are inmersed in a critical economic period ???

But, … Who puts the money to finance the “party” ?… The answer is simple: Call the FED and ask them for money !!!

Wall Street bankers seemed to be abandoned and out of fashion after Lehman crack-down, but … not at all !!!… bonuses will be paid this year too… and the public help will be returned back to the central banks or governments… How nice they are !!!… BUT, IS the FED going to continue with its 0% RATE policy ???…

If so, what happens if they give back the funds received, since they are going to continue enjoying the money “maná” at 0% rate from the FED.

But, ok, it sounds great to the public opinion…: ” Banks are giving back our TAX money”… but nothing heard about the 0% money rates and its real impact on the household economies…

The recent rally in world markets has been completely fueled by public money, that instead of going into the families, little businesses, etc… has gone directly into the capital markets to create another artificial BUBBLE that may explode after the next announced EXIT STRATEGY takes place, maybe in year 2010.

EXIT STRATEGY means simply that governments will decide when to retire the public help officially, braking the liquidity flow poured into the system during the last 2 years. Many analysts forecast another crash once this EXIT STRATEGY gets into effect…since the real economy indicators continue really weak !!!

Alan GREENSPAN took rates at 0%, creating a BUBBLE. Now, BEN BERNANKE does the same, … Let´s see what happens, but now major risks appear in the horizon : CHINA, DOLLAR weakness, OIL prices, …

Meanwhile, the FED SHOP BOYS will continue riding their way to reputation, recognition, re-elections, or even NOBEL prizes… with no worries on the secondary effects !!!

Smart investors have decided to watch the game from the upper row: “GOLD is at 1028 dollars per ounce”… Nothing else needs to be said.

Jose Luis Revilla Escudero
Chairman & CEO
WWShares, Inc
-Global Wealth Management-
http://www.worldwideshares.blogspot.com

JOSE LUIS REVILLA ESCUDERO 27 noviembre 2009 - 11:49

viernes 6 de noviembre de 2009
BERNANKE decision: More BUBBLE !!!

Ben Bernanke, the best FED chairman ever, according to many economists around the world, decided 2 days ago to tell the world:

” Our economy gets stronger each day, BUT LET´S KEEP MONEY RATES at 0% still for a LONG TIME ”

Classic economists should not understand what this statement really means. If the economic indicators are running that good, that healthy, why do we keep rates at 0% and warn about a still long period of low rates ??

Nowadays, Politics and Economy seem to have adapted a new reinvention period. The new politics and economic lessons seem to have abandoned the basic fundamentals we were taught in the university not that long ago.

If you keep low rates, inflation becomes a fear. If inflation does not rise, that means we are into a stagflation period … which is even worse since economy is not reacting to these stimulus measures in the right direction.

But, OK… It comes mr Bernanke and tries to explain that these economy fundamentals do not work this way any more. LET´S REINVENT THE ECONOMY !!!

We have reinvented the POLITICS !!!
We have reinvented the way the government controls BANKS !!!

Why do not we reinvent Economy !!!!

In fact, we are in the middle of a huge CHANGE period. A new era in our planet !!! …

Come on, folks !!! …. Pls, TELL US THE TRUTH !!!

A 10% unemployment rate is not something you can hide.
A Banking bankruptcy chain is not something you can hide either.

Obviously, POLITICS is HOW TO ADMINISTRATE THE TRUTH ACCORDING TO THE TIMES.

But, we are inside a huge risky period, we ask you for the real truth.

Democrats lost in Virginia, New York and New Jersey. That same day, BERNANKE was due to tell the nation how healthy it is in terms of the economy recovery pace. Nevertheless, some analysts forecasted that BERNANKE would be very clear and radical this time.

You guessed it, RATES WILL KEEP LOW for a LONG TIME.

Nice sentence, very inappropiate for a FED chairman that is used to speak only in a very short term. But obviously, Obama defeat in those 3 states deserved some kind of contundence.

The show cannot fall down just now. If we kept the show, through government aid, for the last 7 months… How are we going to leave the show go down now !!!… No way !!!

Market BUBBLE breathed deep and strong !!! … The Markets BUBBLE survival was guaranteed for a few months more !!!

Jose Luis Revilla Escudero
Chairman & CEO
WWShares, Inc
– Global Wealth Management –
http://www.worldwideshares.blogspot.com

James Raymond 9 diciembre 2009 - 18:45

James Raymond…

I need to know what your motives are for posting this? You seem so intent in getting your point across that I must question it. I’m going to keep watch for more entries….

JOSE LUIS REVILLA ESCUDERO 25 diciembre 2009 - 14:12

WALL STREET, 20 years later

Year 1987
Reagan was the US president at that moment. OCTOBER´s BLACK MONDAY makes WALL St fall 508 points in one single session.

20% drop in one day. What happened ?? … Alan GREENSPAN is the FED responsible, and therefore, the key person in the country due to give some kind of explanations to the world.

Greenspan doesn´t know what to say. The main aim of his speech must be CALM, restore CONFIDENCE, and obviously PLANS, IDEAS, …

The reason of this situation was not other than the decision of increase interest rates, without taking much notice of the effects from this decision in the, at that time, bubbled finacial markets. But there is never one single cause,… the main bonds collector in the country gets into bankruptcy, mainly due to this increase in interest rates that made current bonds lose value.

So, GREENSPAN was guilty ??
Obviously, he ´d just arrived into his FED position. But also obvious is that he was supposed to bring some kind of “outdoor” experience in markets, stock exchange, brokers and bankers.
So, yes, GREENSPAN did a bad calculation of risks when deciding to raise rates and ignored factors that derived into a complete hell.

The RESTRICTED handbook for complex situations had to be released from the shelves of the FED library. And acting as a cook recipe book, only 3 dramatic options were recommended:

1- To close the markets. To interrupt the daily shares transactions.
2- To deliver all the FED credit lines and cash into the banks and brokers to restore credit flows and restore confidence.

3- To artificially enter into the markets buying shares to sustain the indexes.

All these 3 measures were considered as an interferation of the state into the free markets. All an interest declaration in the middle of the capitalism paradigm country, the United States of America.

Some time later, nobody explained yet how… but suddenly, the next day, and in only half an hour, major banks began buying futures to restore shares quotations. Many experts said it was some kind of a together action between the government and the private banks. Others say that banks decided to do so because they had the TOP SECRET support of the government, just in case, all went wrong again.

Year 2008
President W.BUSH is in charge. Lehman brothers fall down. The financial system breaks up completely.

Ben BERNANKE had substituted GREENSPAN not that long ago. A long period of 0% interest rates is inherited by BEN, and obviously a new bubbled Wall St is also present. But a new bubble is also there, the REAL ESTATE market.

The securitisation of SUBPRIME bonds attached to this REAL ESTATE bubble makes everything explode.

The difference with year 87 crisis is maybe, that BERNANKE did not decide to raise the rates before everything collapsed. But only for that, since all other is very similar:

1- Instead of a bonds company collapse, we have LEHMAN BROTHERS fall because of the subprime loans.
2- In both cases we have a new FED responsible in charge.
3- The system collapsed and the “between banks” loans stopped in a sudden way, collapsing the credit flow.

4- Markets also dropped heavily, creating a complete negative sentiment.

But in this case, it was not the next day, and with all major banks buying futures, the ones that healed the situation.
It has been a FED strategy, right from the heart of Wall Street, buying shares, nationalising banks, and supporting artificially the Stock Exchanges during the last 10 months. This strategy has not spent half an hour, it has spent more than 12 months and it still continues…

1- 0% interest rates policy.
2- Banks nationalised through the entrance of the government in their shareholding composition.
3- Interbank credit flows restored through vast amounts of public money.
4- Shares quotations support directly from the FED treasury departments and operators.

And we still continue, some say that maybe till june 2010, others fear about the consequences of the end of this aid.

Some say that our current crisis is similar to that in year 1929, the great depression, but its similarities with the chaos of year 1987 are also remarkable, mainly in terms of the banking collapse.

This crisis has left the Wall Street operators screens and has jumped into the real world, that after such a long period of wealth financed by GREENSPAN low interest rates policies, crashed into a REAL ESTATE and CONSUMER bubble that made credit institutions collapse.

And all this came without previous forecast ???… Where is regulation, where is the banking system control ???

So, did GREENSPAN get wrong again ??? …

Meanwhile, investors all around the globe look voiceless how bad macro data ( huge unemployment, public deficit, real estate dramatic statistics … ) mix with a rally in Wall Street.

Every single day a bad figure is released, markets respond with gains. Creating once again a Stock bubble with only 3 – 4 key companies rising the indexes, while the remaining companies struggle to survive.

Markets cannot fall. Markets must be the indicator of positiveness, confidence, that ” we are in the right road to recovery”, but macro data do not say that yet.

Is the FED once again manipulating the markets ??? … Till when ??? … And when this manipulation finishes, what is going to happen ??? ….

We have to wait till june 2010 to see the effects, or maybe more ???

What kind of investors took profit of this unusual rally ?? … Obviously, not the experienced ones, obviously not the old ones, … But those that one day got up, and while having breakfast before taking the car to get into his public office or “anti crisis business” saw that CITIGROUP shares were at 0,5 dollars per share, and told his wife, … Honey !!!, tell the bank branch clerk today to put our savings into CITIGROUP shares that are extremely cheap !!!!

Jose Luis Revilla Escudero
Chairman & CEO
WWShares, Inc
– Global Wealth Management-
http://www.worldwideshares.blogspot.com

Cisco Modules 1 octubre 2012 - 21:07

Tremendous issues here. I am very happy to peer your post. Thank you so much and I am taking a look ahead to touch you. Will you please drop me a e-mail?

beauty.cy9ss.com 7 julio 2014 - 14:55

beauty.cy9ss.com

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