The Anniversary of the financial meltdown

Escrito el 6 Junio 2009 por Mikel Aguirre en Economía Global

On June 12, 2007 the news announced  that two Bear Stearns hedge funds related to mortgage-backed securities were melting down.: A company whose shares were worth $172 on January 2007 and $93 on February 2008, was sold to JPMorgan for $10 on May  29th of 2008.  This led to a worldwide recession and the beginning of the fall of institutions as Lehman Brothers, who in spite of General Motors, is still the largest bankruptcy filing in the US history with around of $600 billion in assets .  The Creditors committee counsel created for the breakup process said:

“The reason we’re not objecting is really based on the lack of a viable alternative.”

We did not obtained in these two years another Lehman but what started as financial products related to junk mortgages has spread far beyond this.  Problem areas now include construction loans, shopping centers, office buildings, any kind of mortgage and now even credit cards and a great amount of suspicion to financial institutions and brokerage accounts that led Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to become bank companies.  All these consequences of the Lehman’s collapse help explain why regulators have been so solicitous to the stress test

The big stock market run-up of the past three months means that this is working or will we turn into another Japan were banks and the economy were stagnant for a decade?



[…] the original here: The Anniversary of the financial meltdown – IE Business School Share and […]

[…] News Sources wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptOn June 12, 2007 the news announced that two Bear Stearns hedge funds related to mortgage-backed securities were melting down.: A company whose shares were worth $172 on January 2007 and $93 on February 2008, was sold to JPMorgan for $10 on May 29 th of 2008 . This led to a worldwide recession and the beginning of the fall of institutions as Lehman Brothers, who in spite of General Motors, is still the largest bankruptcy filing in the US history with around of $600 billion in assets . […]

[…] Originally posted here:  Economy Weblog » The Anniversary of the financial meltdown – IE … […]

Antonios Kypreos 6 Junio 2009 - 16:22

This is a good blog discussion and a complicated one as well.

I remember when Bear Stearn’s stock price was quite high. I did an internship there for 5 months in the summer of 2005, the price per share was something like $155 per share. It seemed like a firm that was being run really efficiently and was the “golden underdog” of Wall Street Firms. Unlike many other firms on Wall Street, they didn’t only hire from top Ivy League schools, but wanted people that were “PSH ( Poor, Smart and Hungry)”. They had a very flat organizational culture, so much so that one time I wanted to talk to one of the board members of the firm for some questions and the same day, after writing one email to him, I spoke with him on the phone. It was a shock when the firm collapsed after the hedge fund bust, as analysts rate Bear Stearns the most risk averse firms of all WS investment banks.

In some ways, I agree that the financial crisis we experienced this year and last, were due to lack of regulation, concerning the products like the CSD and others, mentioned here in this blog. But I feel more strongly, that the regulation was not enforced well enough. There are a lot of regulations in place, but it is the work and diligence needed to enforce these regulations, that is why this crisis snowballed as it did. That, combined with the lack of Senior Managers at other big investment banks to look closely at the products they were selling. In the hurry not to miss out on the opportunity to sell these products and win money, they did not due the appropriate due diligence. That, in my opinion, is the big problem.

In the last three months, we have seen a medium recovery in terms of stock markets in the US ( and worldwide), trying to make it back to decent levels. For example, the US market (S&P) is around 8750 right now. Also, Emerging Markets are also up ( with India and China stock markets up some 40%-50% Year to Date). I do not believe that the crisis is finished by any means. Typically the stock market lags behind the real economic changes. However, one good thing I see is that it is not just the US markets that are up, but also all around the world, stock markets are up. So, it seems as though investor confidence is starting to increase. Stock prices were simply at too low levels not to buy ( an example is Barclays, which was a 6.87 two months ago and is now 17.75 or so).

I do not believe it will be like Japan in terms of years of no economic growth, however it will take some time before all the indicators of the economy are back to pre-crisis levels worldwide.

Patricia de Obeso 8 Junio 2009 - 22:24

Before the crisis, my knowledge on investment banks was relatively limited. Even though it is still not broad enough, newspapers, world media and master´s courses have provided a clearer view. My conclusion is always the same, globalization has an incredible number of advantages but if not managed correctly can lead to catastrophes. Many failed to do ratings correctly and others were not careful enough as to see where they were investing their money. But to me, what is unacceptable is the lack of government intervention when noticing that something was going wrong. It was irresponsible and they are now paying high prices. The crash of GM has impacted unemployment and will probably still have repercussions for years to come.
It is clear that government now has to respond to the crisis and cannot permit for banks to crash, but people are indirectly paying for this. Bankers should come up with a new approach, one that takes into consideration such risks and that pays to everyone, not only their managers.


LEHMAN down, GM down, Citi, Chrysler … Is AMERICA really hurt ?

PONTIAC, BUICK, CHEVROLET… the “American dreamt” brands, the symbol of an era in America.
The wish of many teenagers that then became great personalities around the globe.

But, this was a forecasted end. TOYOTA has been for many years, the real revolution in the american auto industry. Together with NISSAN, both japanese manufacturers, leaded the auto sales market for many years in a row.

Afterwards, came the korean cars… the asian conquer of the american auto corporations.

Is this the sign of an hegemony change ?… Is AMERICA really that hurt ?
Is competitiveness the key crack-down factor for this consequences ?

The US will always mean marketing, show, branding, globality, with its own values and essence. But, is this enough to keep US sovereignity in the planet ??

AMERICA has voted for a change. Barack Obama, the first black president, meant a new change era and a barn of hopes for many americans. But is it enough with a good carisma and beautiful words ??

USA is now playing a tough game. The game of competitiveness, the game of innovation, the new rules of capitalism…

Can AMERICA workers compete with the 24-hour turns of japanese or chinese workers ?
Can AMERICA export more than import ?
Can AMERICA reissue the huge external debt owned by CHINA now ?

Does anyone know that the main owner of the USA is CHINA ?

Yes, the main owners of US debt is CHINA. If CHINA decides to do it, US Dollar can dissapear.

Nowadays, CHINA has lived of US imports. Therefore, CHINA has accumulated vast deposits of T-bonds and US Dollars. This has been the reason for the dollar stability.
Once CHINA develops their internal consumer rates, or begin diversifying their exports, CHINA will be in position to change US dollars for other currencies. Then, US Dollar will be dead.

Is AMERICA ready for this era ?
Does Barack Obama has a real plan to put a brake on this dynamic ?

Huge challenges ahead. But, for sure, the only opportunity for AMERICA is not to lose their essence. The AMERICAN DREAMT must be on, but politicians and decisions makers must also help on this.

One advice for Mr Obama:
Capitalism has not failed, it has been the lack of regulation in the financial markets.

It is very important to keep this clear, because around this point, the US must build their next future generations.

Jose Luis Revilla Escudero
WWShares, Inc
-Global Wealth Management-

Miguel Amaral 10 Junio 2009 - 06:20

Dear Miguel,

Sometimes I do not understand why we are so surprised with this financial meltdown. Is this situation really new? I feel like we suddenly had a lack of memory and do not remember that some years ago when LTCM went bankrupt it almost collapsed the financial system.

The investment banking industry has always been very aggressive and competitive, they are pure money machines and this kind of behaviour was responsible for this financial leukemia. Now the world economy is ill and our main concern should be analyzing the reaction of each Government to face this crisis.

The US reaction was faster, cutting interest rates and fueling the economy with money, while Europe reacted slower and more conservative. It seems that US will recover sooner and with inflation, so this mean’s the dollar will decrease in value and oil and European exports will be more expensive thus I believe there is a high risk for a long European stagnation.

Best regards,
Miguel Amaral.

Claudia Monroy 15 Junio 2009 - 11:34

Even though the US crisis and the Japanese crisis started in a similar manner (with the burst of a real estate bubble and the selling of overvalued financial assets), I believe that they will end up with different conclusions. The current US credit crisis was one of confidence. Recognized financial institutions behaved unethically by administering subprime mortgages and collecting toxic assets into pools and then reselling it at a premium to investors.

Japan’s solution to its 10 year stagnation involved injecting 1.8 trillion yen into into its banks. However, the plan of action was not clearly defined and it ultimately failed to provide optimal outcomes. As a result, Japan had to aggressively nationalize Banks and letting less competitive banks fail.

As a contrast, the US and Obama’s administration is leaving the nationalization of banks as a last result. Government has lowered interest rates and is aggressively injecting money into bailing out banks. Therefore, I do not believe that the US´s economy will resemble Japan´s. The market run-up of the past three months reflects that the nation is coming out of the recession. The stock market´s improvement is reflecting the improvement of investors’ confidence, Confidence given by the government´s active participation of lowering interest rates and stimulating the economy. Obama´s administration commitment to rescuing banks and providing hope to investors will drag the US out of the hole it is currently in.

Leticia Salama 15 Junio 2009 - 15:02

From 1990 the situation of Japan has been of economic stagnation because the banks labored under impeding debt, and governments wasted trillions of yen on half-measures. However, in 2003 the government finally took actions and forced to declare bad loans and allowed weak banks to fail. This can be compared to what happened to Lehman Brothers in 2008, as the government allowed the bank to collapse. By then, the country’s public debt had grown to exceed its gross domestic product, and deflation stalked the land. In the end, real estate prices fell for 15 consecutive years.
We can say that Lehman fall was the detonator for the unconfident crisis and something similar might happen to the United States. Both Japan and US started with ultra-low interest rates, fiscal stimulus and ineffective cash infusions, among other things.
As we have seen, Japanese crisis and American crisis have similar detonators which unfortunately might lead stagnant economies for decades. Let´s just hope not.

Andres Camacho 15 Junio 2009 - 20:22

I think the post made by Jose Luis is scary but real. How did the most potent nation in the world all of a sudden, turn into China´s pet? I think it puts the U.S. and Obama into a weird position, and probably the world. Can you imagine what would happen if the dollar dissapeared? How long would this crisis last?
I have read in various economic magazines and newspapers that Obama´s plan has been explained to many, and shows signs of promise, however, all that talk needs to be implemented. Obama needs to back up his talk. If not, hard times will be ahead of us, maybe free trade will come to an end, and high tarrifs will be imposed on goods, how will countries manage their trade deficits? what about employment?
I think with this crisis, the world is now more united than ever, and large economies are trying to work in coming up with a solution. Time will tell if we manage to get out of this crisis alive.

BTW, I was going over some articles online, and found an intersting one regarding China becoming the next powerhouse. here is the link if you want to read it: http://www.indymedia.org.nz/article/76979/interview-chinas-future-vs-global-financ

Farah Hudhud 16 Junio 2009 - 00:58

The key lessons learned from the Japanese crisis of 1990 can be summarized as followed:
• The most evident warning sign of the beginning of the crisis is accounted by the underestimation of the banking problem. The government believed that the crisis could solve itself by keeping interest rates low
• Non-performing loans were not recognized fat enough. Financial institutions promoted and traded these securities even though of their toxic characteristic.
• The government did not step in fast enough to attack the problem at hand
• Ultimately, the government was forced to inject capital into financial institutions.
• Bailout packages were offered with strict guidelines. However, several banks rejected them and tried to improve their balance sheets by not lending which in turn made the crisis even worse.
• Ultimately the most vita lesson observed is that Japan acted too slowly in terms of monetary and fiscal policy
Apparently, as Isabel said, history does repeat itself. Many of the characteristics of the Japanese crisis are resembled in the US’s current credit crisis. However, experts’ opinions are that in the case of the US the side effects might be more drastic. Even though according to the economist magazine, Goldman Sachs suggests that American banks held some $5.7 trillion-worth of loans in “troubled” categories, such as subprime mortgages and commercial property. That is equivalent to almost 40% of GDP. Another reason in which it could be different in America is due to its massive account deficit, such debt is being financed by other countries mainly China which made the US dollar more at risk from being devaluated.

Louise 16 Junio 2009 - 17:39

I was looking online to find some articles that will help me better understand both crises in order to better compare them. I came across this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/business/economy/13yen.html
It briefly describes both crises and tries to indentify the similarities and the differences in these two crises…
In that sense, I think it is highly possible that the US might end up in a crisis similar than the Japanese one for several reasons:
1. Both stocks indexes lost value
2. Public debts increased
3. Real estate prices fell
4. Ultra low interest rate
5. Govs bought back bad assets

Still, and even though the American government has been buying some shares in their banks, we still wonder, will the US nationalize their banks as much as Japan, and what might be the effects of such a measure?!…

HSU KAI TING 17 Junio 2009 - 00:55

According to many people commented above, I think there are some people actually think that the crisis originated from the US now will not result in the same consequence with the burst of bubble economy in Japan. But as a matter of fact, I find these two crises came from almost the same reason, and probably they will eventually go toward the same consequence.

Speaking of the causes of these two crises, I believe the American one and the Japanese one both resulted from the overheated investments, which brought the whole economy to a bubble level. And then, both burst. The US government was afraid of that the burst of the Japanese bubble would spread all over the world and became difficult to control, and what the Japanese government did was listening very “carefully” to the US government, consolidated the banks, and executed every possible policy to minimize, stabilize the economy, and tried not to get everyone involved. All these directly led to the stagnation of the Japanese economy.

And now if we take a look at the American crisis, it is pretty obvious that it also resulted from the over-confidence towards the economy. But what the US government is trying to do is to force others to bear the risks and the consequences of the crisis instead of controlling them. I strongly believe this is the main reason why this has become a “global” crisis. And what will be the consequence finally? The US is down, and everyone is down because of it. The only difference between the American crisis and the Japanese crisis is whether it spread to the whole world or not.

So people really do not learn from the past, and the same thing happens because of the same cause. But what is going to happen next may be different. The key here is about the “people”. Japanese people have gone through the stagnation and remained one of the biggest economies in the world because Japanese people save and endure. I believe the current crisis have made US people rethink about their attitude towards economy, and this will make a huge difference and impact to how the economy is going to recover and how it is going to be in the future. US, and the biggest economy in the world, have to start thinking about their position in the world, since nobody will give it a hand next time.

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