¿Han tocado fondo las bolsas?

Escrito el 16 Abril 2009 por Rafael Pampillón en Economía de EEUU

The chart compares Standard and Poors (S&P 500) earnings performance during the current economic recession (solid red line) to that of the last recession (dashed green line) and the average recession from 1936-2006 (dashed blue line). As today’s chart illustrates, the current decline in earnings is several orders of magnitude greater than the average decline during a recession. The current decline is also more severe than what was the most severe earnings decline on record – the decline that began in 2001 (green dashed line).

Source – Standard & Poor’s

¿Ha tocado fondo el Standard and Poors (S&P)?

Fuente http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090409.htm


Fernando Peral 17 Abril 2009 - 10:13

Tras el último comentario del Director Gerente del FMI para 2009, mucho me temo que aún distamos bastante del suelo. La vuelta del verano se presenta más que oscura para las bolsas de valores.

Rubén 17 Abril 2009 - 20:10

Afortunadamente se respira cierto clima de estabilización en el sector bancario, piedra fundamental para construir algo de paz económica. Esperanza y atisbos de recuperación

El Pa 18 Abril 2009 - 20:18

[…] durante un a

[…] herramientas de trabajo son sus afirmaciones al público en general. Y cuando se oye decir que hay recuperación de las bolsas, o incluso de algunos datos macroeconómicos, no sé exactamente de donde se sacan esos datos. Este […]



After 2 years of losses in the european stock indexes, and 3 years of losses in Wall Street… There is people now that begin thinking the “bearish season” is over.

After all, this is a question of confidence. If people believe the bearish season is over, then we have nothing to do with being bearish any more.

Let´s be bullish, then !!!…

But, today I wake up and read that the NEW FRONTIER BANK in COLORADO has gone into bankruptcy with 2.000 million dollars in assets. …This is even to fear a wild BULL, isn´t it ??

Last week, a well known bank in Japan continued reporting huge losses and sank its quotation in the Nikkei.
Citigroup and Bank of America are due to report “good” results for the first quarter,… What does it mean “good” ???

Does it mean they are now solvent again ??
How much money have they received from the government to announce “good” results ??
When are they going to return this money to the contributors ??

Politicians obviously need to launch good news into the people. They need to restore confidence to improve the consumer rates. But, are they cheating us again ??

I am a private investor that put my money in risk every time I invest it. So, and since I am not going to receive money from the government if I lose it, I must be very, very careful.

It is clear that BNP PARIBAS, CITIGROUP, BBVA, SANTANDER, etc… have gained ground from their minimums, in some cases, even more than a 50%. Huge return for the agressive players that bought when the apocalypsis was announced everywhere, even in the NUTELLA bowls.

People use to say that “without risk, no gains”… Ok, I agree with that. But, I have to be careful with my and my customers investments, because they do not push me to earn a 50 % return on investment, but yes…, they push me hard NOT TO LOSE THEIR MONEY.

My advice then is not other than, if you feel hungry, go eating the cake little by little, chunk by chunk,…Otherwise you may end up with a digestive problem.
So in a portfolio of 1.000.000 dollars, I would now be in, with a 15% in stocks, buying long positions when fears arise again, now that we are in the results release time, and bad surprises may come.

If going down, buy every 5% drops… If going up above your highest purchase price, keep watching…

Do not be greedy, with drops of more than 90% in some companies, there is much ground to gain… when clouds firmly dissapear.

We cannot deny the first explosions of good news will come from the banks. So, I would recommend to be exposed into banking institutions, mainly those that announced “good” results, or those enough reinforced by government funds.

In a second phase, I would recomend “public concessions companies” that can benefit from the huge public expense in infraestructures to be approved and executed by all the governments.

In the case of Spain, obviously:


Finally, you must select some of the most deteriorated “slumdogs”, but with the best hopes of a rebirth:

Let´s see if the BEAR hunters change their shotguns for a “capote y una espada” and begin bullfighting again. Let´s hope so.

Jose Luis Revilla Escudero
WWShares, Inc

[…] en el blog Economy Weblog del IE doy con un interesante gráfico sobre la evolución de los resultados empresariales de las […]

sicoes 8 Septiembre 2012 - 05:16

buenas acabo de enterarme de tu web y la verdad es que me parece genial no sabia de mas personas interesadas en estos temas, aqui tienes un nuevo lector que seguira visitandote abitualmente.

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