India: demographic dividend

Escrito el 9 Agosto 2008 por Rafael Pampillón en Economía Mundial

The population or forecasts of the UNO estimate that, in the year 2025, the Indian population will total 1,395 million (today, the figure stands at higher than 1,100 million). The determining factor behind the growth of the GDP over the coming decades will be the increase in the progressiveness of the working-age population. In 2015, the population of between 15 and 64 years is expected to increase by almost 20%. In addition, it is estimated that this trend will continue and the working-age population will have increased in 2025 by more than 36% in comparison with the 2005 level. Should these forecasts be correct, in 2025, more than 67% of the Indian population will be between 15 and 64 years of age.

In comparison with European countries, the United States, Canada and China, it is estimated that by 2030 India will have the population with the lowest average age (32 years). This demographic dynamics may make India the most attractive destination for direct foreign investment in search of the efficiency provided by relatively cheap qualified labour in the production of mass consumption articles for global markets. However, for the growing number of new incorporations in the workforce to generate greater productivity, an increase in the level of education is absolutely essential. These two factors (population growth and improvement in human capital) constitute the rich “demographic dividend” India could obtain if it implements certain critical reforms of its educational policy.


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